Kenya: Political Tensions Likely to Increase Following Deputy President's Impeachment

The impeachment proceedings against Gachagua have sparked concerns about potential civil unrest, particularly in his stronghold in the Mount Kenya region. In October alone, Kenya witnessed 22 demonstrations related to the impeachment, with most being peaceful and supportive of Gachagua. However, these gatherings carry a credible risk of escalation, including potential confrontations between demonstrators and law enforcement.  

The situation underscores Gachagua's ability to mobilize substantial public support, especially in counties like Kirinyaga, Laikipia, Nyandarua, and Nyeri. As a prominent figure from this influential area, his potential removal may exacerbate ethnic tensions, particularly between the Kalenjin and Kikuyu communities, potentially leading to more widespread demonstrations and localized conflicts. Police may forcibly disperse crowds using tear gas and rubber bullets, posing risks not only to participants but also to bystanders nearby, indicating the possibility of sustained unrest as the impeachment process unfolds.

Furthermore, the impeachment is likely to have significant impacts on Ruto's government in the coming months. While it may allow Ruto to consolidate his power, it also risks alienating Gachagua's substantial support base. This could lead to a backlash and calls for accountability from Ruto's administration, particularly among Kikuyu politicians who were instrumental in his election. Additionally, it could deepen divisions within the ruling alliance and influence political alliances ahead of the 2027 elections.

The political uncertainty created by this impeachment could have also significant economic repercussions. Kenya is currently seeking new International Monetary Fund loans, and the political instability may complicate these negotiations. The government's ability to address pressing issues such as corruption, escalating national debt, and rising unemployment may be hampered by the political turmoil.