Security Crisis Deepens in Haiti amid Dismissal of Prime Minister and Suspension of US Flights

• Political and economic instability are likely to worsen in Haiti in the coming months, following the Nov. 10 dismissal of interim Prime Minister Gary Conille and the appointment of Alix Didier Fils-Aimé.
• Gang violence also continues to escalate, with criminal groups targeting critical infrastructure, leading to flight cancellations and port closures.
• Public discontent is growing amidst deepening shortages of essential goods; violence, unrest, and transport and business disruptions will likely worsen in the medium term.

The CPT decision to replace Conille has been controversial and came amid a power struggle between Conille and the CPT; Conille advocated removing three CPT members who had recently become embroiled in a bribery scandal. When the CPT announced that Conille would instead be removed, many stakeholders and Conille himself argued that the dismissal was illegal and that the CPT lacked any authority to dismiss him. Although Conille vowed he would not step down, Fils-Aime named his new cabinet on Nov. 16, which could further inflame political tensions.

The dismissal of Conille comes amid Haiti's ongoing political turmoil, with the country failing to hold elections since 2016. The controversial nature of Conille's removal, along with his refusal to step down, is likely to fuel further unrest. Citizens have frequently staged protests in response to the deepening crisis, with one notable demonstration in Port-au-Prince in August seeing protesters burning tires while demanding that authorities act against the escalating gang violence that has plagued the nation. Police disbanded the protest with tear gas. Further acts of civil unrest and clashes with authorities are highly likely as tensions escalate.

Shortly after Conille's dismissal, Jimmy “Barbeque” Cherizier, leader of the Viv Ansanm gang coalition, stated that he would reignite his violent campaign against the government and warned civilians against going outside. Although the Kenyan-led and primarily US-funded MSS unit has been attempting to support Haitian security forces, criminal organizations have mainly operated unabated. Clashes continue in the capital, where gangs still control at least 80 percent of the city. In mid-November, gang violence displaced over 20,000 residents across Port-au-Prince in just four days, and US authorities banned US airlines from operating in Haiti after two aircraft were struck by gunfire. This was not the first instance of gang violence impacting critical infrastructure, as in mid-September, Caribbean Port Services (CPS) briefly closed land access to the main port in Port-Au-Prince after gangs looted cargo and kidnapped sailors.

The UN also grounded its flights to Haiti, further limiting the delivery of humanitarian aid. These disruptions, paired with gangs controlling major highways, have severely affected supply lines, resulting in shortages of food, fuel, and medicine, among other essential goods. Amid the disruptions to commercial activity and foreign investment in 2024, the Haitian economy has contracted for the sixth straight year at approximately 4.2 percent, while inflation has remained high at nearly 30 percent. As the crisis persists, supply chain disruptions will likely worsen.

The uncertain future of the MSS further complicates the situation. A new US presidential administration will take office in January, but it has yet to clarify its stance on funding the MSS. The CPT has expressed a desire for the MSS to transition into a full UN peacekeeping mission. However, if the US scales back its funding, it could make this goal harder to reach and leave Haitian security forces even more vulnerable over the coming months.

With ongoing political instability amid Conille’s dismissal and refusal to step down, escalating gang violence, and now attacks on critical infrastructure, the situation in Haiti has shown little signs of improving in the near term. Civilians continue to protest the current political and humanitarian crisis and will almost certainly continue to do so, given the absence of a functioning government. Gangs have escalated their activities without real deterrence and disrupted critical supply chains. Without a clear political resolution, national security strategy, or sustained international response, the crisis will likely worsen over the coming months into 2025.