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South China Sea and Taiwan Strait: Maritime Escalation Risk Likely to Rise

An accelerating arms buildup and shifting strategic alignments designed to deter China will likely raise escalation risk in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait through 2026. Discover how this climate could provoke localized standoffs that disrupt sea lines of communication, raise shipping and insurance costs, and chill capital flows as defense spending rises across the region.

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GRF 2026 - Asia-Pacific - Maritime Escalation Risk Likely to Rise

Access the Full Global Risk Forecast 2026

Unlock complete regional outlooks and key insights written by our best-in-class intelligence analysts.