Australia: Bushfire Summer Forecast 2025

The conditions in the various regions of Australia are as follows:

• New South Wales 
  Central regions are carrying high grass fuel loads and are entering summer drier than normal. With no clear indication of increased rainfall to alleviate these conditions, the area is likely to face an increased risk of fast-moving, intense fires.
• Victoria 
  An increased risk of fire is forecast for southwest, western, central and north-central regions, as well as south-west Gippsland January-February. A warmer-than-average summer is likely. Despite current green growth, Victoria is likely to rapidly transition to a highly flammable state in January.
• Western Australia 
  Elevated fire risk is expected for Yalgoo and the Geraldton Sandplains due to above-average surface fuel accumulations. This increased risk also applies to the northern parts of Swan Coastal Plain and Jarrah Forest, and parts of Esperance Plains and Mallee region due to persistent soil moisture deficits. With a forecast for a warmer-than-average summer, vigilance and property preparation are crucial. 

Bushfires can result in loss of life, widespread property damage, economic losses, and infrastructure impacts. Power outages may occur due to direct fire damage to infrastructure or pre-emptive safety shut-offs to reduce fire risks. Smoke from bushfires can cause eye irritation, respiratory discomfort, and worsen chronic heart and lung diseases. Individuals with pre-existing respiratory illnesses such as allergies, asthma, or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) may experience heightened symptoms. Extensive soil erosion is possible across burn scars during rainfall due to loosened soil and an increase in runoff from the lack of vegetation cover. 

Supply chain disruptions are possible, especially if bushfires burn across highways, roads, or approach large population centers. This could lead to evacuations, road closures, and ground transport diversions due to fire activity and the needs of response operations. Disruptions to arterial roads are possible, and the scarcity of alternative routes in some areas can result in significant transport disruptions. While authorities are experienced in minimizing the potential impact, roads in remote regions are likely to be disrupted for longer periods than urban roads due to their relative inaccessibility. Also, even after evacuation orders are lifted, reentry periods may continue to impact traffic flows. Low visibility from smoke and possible ashfall could contribute to traffic delays and congestion and prompt short-notice flight disruptions if bushfires occur near airports. Railways can also experience occasional cancellations of services and extended delays.

Bushfire activity in the upcoming peak months is likely to cause localized disruptions across parts of Australia, especially in areas where above-average fire activity levels are forecast. Severe fires could lead to casualties, damage, and evacuations. Those operating in the region should remain vigilant for bushfire outbreaks and ensure adequate contingency plans are in place to respond to the threat of fires in the coming months. 

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