Europe’s Extreme Heat and Wildfires Likely to Drive Recurring Seasonal Disruptions 

Extreme heat and wildfires are becoming predictable features of Europe’s summer risk environment, increasing the likelihood of recurring operational disruption.  Europe is the world's fastest-warming continent: Western Europe recorded its hottest June on record in 2026, averaging 20 C (68 F), around 3 C (5 F) above the 1991-2020 average. Drier-than-average conditions, below-average river flows, and worsening drought also created favorable conditions for wildfire activity. 

The June heatwaves were likely driven primarily by climate change, as El Niño conditions were only beginning to emerge at the time. While El Niño typically raises global average temperatures, its influence on European weather is more indirect and variable; Europe's summer heatwave intensity is therefore more closely linked to underlying climate warming. 

European heatwaves often develop under "heat dome" conditions, when hot, dry air - often moving north from the Sahara and North Africa - becomes trapped over an area for days or weeks. This allows temperatures to build with little cloud cover or relief. As the climate warms, these heatwaves are becoming more frequent, longer-lasting, and more intense.

Fires are typically sparked by human activity or lightning, but how quickly they spread depends on factors such as strong winds, high temperatures, dry vegetation, and terrain. The Mediterranean is Europe's primary wildfire hotspot, with the highest risk of severe disruption concentrated between June and September. Southern France, Greece, Portugal, Spain, and Turkiye are particularly exposed due to their hot, dry summers.  

Europe's 2026 wildfire season is running at more than twice the historical pace. Around 1,250 fires had been recorded by late July, compared with a long-term average of 569, burning roughly 435,000-457,000 hectares. The season is already the EU's second-worst on record at this point, with France setting a new annual burned-area record and Spain recording its largest-ever wildfire.

The human and operational costs of Europe’s extreme heat are already significant. More than 14,000 excess deaths were estimated during the peak 2026 heatwave, mostly among older adults, while wildfire smoke exposed millions to hazardous air pollution that can worsen respiratory and cardiovascular conditions. Combined heat and smoke are increasing seasonal mortality, straining healthcare and essential services, and reducing workforce productivity - a burden likely to grow as extreme heat becomes more frequent and prolonged.

Wildfires can quickly escalate from a local emergency into a wider business continuity risk when they threaten population centers and critical infrastructure. Fires near major highways can force prolonged closures and diversions, particularly in remote areas where limited alternative routes and difficult access can slow emergency response and disrupt supply chains.

Power infrastructure is similarly exposed. Fires can damage substations, transmission lines, and distribution networks, while utilities may implement preventative power cuts to reduce ignition risk or protect infrastructure. These outages can compound disruption across communities, industrial operations, and critical facilities.  

Extreme heat, wildfires, and drought will increasingly translate into higher operating costs and more frequent business interruption across Europe. The most significant impacts will include:  

• Workforce and costs: Extreme heat can reduce productivity, trigger mandatory work stoppages, increase cooling demand, and accelerate equipment failures - raising operating and maintenance costs.  

• Supply chains: Wildfires can close roads and railways, while drought and low river levels can restrict inland shipping. Delivery delays and freight rerouting will be most likely along Mediterranean corridors and major industrial waterways.  

• Power reliability: Heat and drought can strain electricity grids and constrain nuclear and hydropower generation. Wildfires can also damage transmission infrastructure or trigger preventative power shutoffs.  

• Business continuity: Overlapping transport, power, and workforce disruption can result in production stoppages, logistics delays, and reduced access to critical facilities, particularly during peak summer months.

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