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Intelligence Analysis

Critical Alert: Iran-Israel Armed Conflict

13 JUN 2025

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3 min read


Iran-Israel Armed Conflict

KEY TAKEAWAYS:

  • On June 13, Israel launched targeted airstrikes against military and nuclear targets in Iran.
  • Iran has responded by launching over 100 drones towards Israel.
  • There is a strong likelihood of further strikes or retaliatory attacks, with the potential for escalation into a broader regional confrontation.
  • Significant air travel disruptions in Iran, Israel, and neighboring countries are likely due to airspace closures and suspended flights.
  • Localized ground transport disruptions near impacted sites and heightened security in urban centers and border districts are expected.
  • Heightened security measures are in effect, including state of emergency declarations, school closures, and advice for sheltering in place.
  • Israeli diplomatic missions around the world have been closed. 

Overview of the Iran-Israel Conflict

Further escalation is likely following widespread Israeli airstrikes across Iran on June 13, and Iran's subsequent response, which involved the launch of over 100 drones toward Israel. The Israeli strikes - part of "Operation Rising Lion" - targeted military bases, nuclear facilities, command and control centers, and senior military and political figures. The IDF described the campaign as a "preemptive, precise, and combined offensive" aimed at degrading Iran's nuclear capabilities and broader military infrastructure.

In anticipation of Iranian retaliation, the Israeli government declared a nationwide state of emergency (SoE), mobilized reserve forces, and ordered the activation of emergency underground hospitals. Under the SoE, schools are closed, social gatherings are banned, and people have been advised against non-essential work. Air raid sirens have sounded across multiple regions, and the public has been urged to remain near shelters. 

Diplomatic Missions

The US Embassy in Israel has instructed all government personnel and their families to shelter in place. While US officials state that Washington is not involved in the strikes, the broader regional security posture may be affected. If the situation escalates, US military forces and diplomatic installations across the Middle East could face indirect risks.

Israel announced the temporary closure of its diplomatic missions around the world until further notice.

Air Travel

Significant air travel disruptions are likely in Iran, Israel, and neighboring countries. Iran and Israel have both closed their airspaces. Neighboring countries, including Iraq and Syria, have also closed their airspaces and grounded all flights amid the regional tension. Other closures should be anticipated with further attacks.

The attacks and subsequent airspace closures have prompted several airlines to suspend, cancel, divert, and re-route flights. Flight traffic has mainly diverted either south through Egypt and Saudi Arabia, or north through Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Turkmenistan. Several airlines have also suspended flights in the region.

Ground Travel

Localized ground transport disruptions are likely, especially near impacted sites in Iran and Israel. Heightened security measures are likely to remain in effect across both countries.

Further Israeli strikes or Iranian retaliatory attacks, including missile or drone launches, remain a strong possibility in the coming hours and days. The situation is dynamic and could expand into a broader regional confrontation.

Advice

  • Defer all travel to Israel and Iran until further notice.
  • For personnel currently in either country, if incoming projectiles or rocket fire are reported, or if warning sirens sound in the vicinity, immediately proceed to the nearest bomb shelter and remain there until authorities indicate it is safe to leave. If no shelter is available, stay indoors, away from windows and exterior walls. If feasible, relocate to a ground floor or basement level for added protection. Minimize nonessential movement.
  • Maintain regular contact with diplomatic missions for updates and assistance. Avoid all demonstrations, political gatherings, areas with a heavy security presence, and all military installations or government facilities, as these may become flashpoints for violence or targeted attacks.
  • Reconfirm the status of all flights, as well as the operational status of major roads and border crossings, before traveling. If air travel remains operational, arrive at airports well in advance to allow for extended security screening and potential delays.
  • Continue to monitor reliable local media sources and official government channels for real-time updates. Follow all instructions issued by local authorities and security personnel without delay.

If your organization has people or assets in the Middle East, our experts can help to stay ahead of the situation to protect your employees and operations.  

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