Impact of Cuts to Forecasting Services Uncertain During Above-Average US Hurricane Season

The 2025 Atlantic Hurricane season is forecast to see above-average levels of storm activity, and there are concerns that recent cuts to services may impact the ability of forecasters. As part of a wider cost-cutting program, the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has carried out widespread cuts to the North Atlantic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Weather Service (NWS). It is difficult to predict exactly how much of an impact these cuts will have, but, with an active season expected, any impacts could have severe consequences for any affected areas.

The ongoing neutral phase of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation is forecast to persist through much of the hurricane season, which officially began June 1 and runs through November, with a slight chance of a transition to a La Nina phase towards the end of the season. This would normally indicate around average levels of activity in the basin; however, due to warmer-than-usual sea temperatures and other climatic factors, NOAA and other forecasters predict activity to be slightly above normal in 2025. 

Hundreds of staff members have been fired or have resigned across NOAA, which also houses the NWS, amid the recent cuts. Exact staff reduction numbers are unclear, as some firing decisions have been reversed. Whilst many of the reductions have been in research departments (which could have further longer-term impacts on forecasting), several local NWS offices have had staff levels reduced. This means some of the offices that send out vital warnings regarding severe weather are not being manned 24 hours, and some weather balloon launches, which help capture weather data, have been canceled. 

There have also been reductions in the staffing of those operating hurricane hunter flights that gather important information on the track, intensity, and other aspects of hurricanes. While it is expected the cuts may only have a minimal impact on the various services ability to provide timely and accurate forecasts, it could only take one fewer hurricane hunter flight to miss a sudden intensification of a storm system and reduced staffing in local NWS offices could result in a delay in crucial warnings being sent out. Storm tracking information and weather warnings give people in the impacted areas crucial time to prepare and take the necessary actions to reduce the impacts of storm systems and their associated hazards, so even small delays in receiving data or warnings could have a significant impact. In 2023, Hurricane Otis underwent rapid intensification off the coast of southwestern Mexico, and this caught many people off guard and led to devastating impacts in Acapulco when the storm struck, including at least 52 fatalities and approximately USD-16 billion in damages. There are not as many hurricane hunter flights flown in this region, highlighting the impact that fewer resources can have in missing crucial information regarding these storm systems. 

Regardless of the impacts of the cuts, it only takes one storm to make it an impactful hurricane season for those in the affected area. Residents in coastal and inland areas are advised to monitor closely for information regarding storm systems and take necessary action to prepare. Climate change has not affected the number of storm systems that are occurring but has been linked to an increase in the intensity of storms, and this has led to more storms causing impacts further inland. 

The combination of an above-average forecast, the uncertain impacts of DOGE cuts, and the recent trend of storms moving further inland means extra vigilance is required, and preparation measures should be taken during the hurricane season. Consider the following general preparedness advice:

In Advance of the Storm

• Know your local storm risks. Some locations are more vulnerable to storm surge while others are more susceptible to wind damage or landslides.
• Determine the best location(s) to shelter in your area (shelter-in-place or another building in the area). Evacuation may become necessary, so learn the best routes in advance, and fuel your vehicle. Plan for pets, including buying pet food and ensuring proof of up-to-date vaccinations (usually required for emergency shelters).
• Prepare an emergency kit that includes bottled water, nonperishable food, a flashlight with extra batteries, blankets, weather radio, medication, important documents, etc.
• Trim large trees or shrubs, bring all removable objects inside and secure immovable objects. Clean drains, gutters, and downspouts.
• Contact someone outside of the area and inform them of your plans (whether you are staying or evacuating). Do not assume you will be able to make calls or have internet access during a storm.
• Businesses should review and update emergency action and evacuation plans and consider conducting drills. If applicable, testing of emergency backup power supplies and obtaining fuel for backup generators should be completed well in advance. If possible, ensure that critical business operations can fall over to business units outside of the storm zone as needed.

During the Storm

• Monitor local media for updated forecasts and evacuation notices. Obey evacuation orders issued by authorities. If unable to evacuate or not ordered to do so, stay indoors and away from glass windows and doors.
• During high winds, take shelter well into your building's interior and close all doors. Secure and brace all exterior doors. If possible, do not stay on the top floor of a building, which could become unsafe if the roof is damaged or destroyed. If trapped in a building due to flooding, move to the highest floor but do not climb into a closed attic. Do not walk, swim, or drive through floodwaters. 

After the Storm Passes

• Monitor local media for information related to medical treatment, potable water, food supply, and shelter availability.
• Remain in your safe location until authorities state it is safe to leave. Authorities working on cleanup, restoring power, and other safety issues need priority on roads. Report downed power lines or any other broken utility lines (gas, water, sewer) to local officials.
• Do not drink or prepare food with tap water - unless you boil it first - until local officials have declared the water supply clean and safe.

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