Terrorism Outlook 2026: Threats, Tactics, and Global Implications

Sahel: Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso

The Sahel will remain one of the most lethal and fastest-growing global terrorism hotspots, with weak governance, economic fragility, and fractured security forces enabling extremist expansion. The Islamic State-Sahel Province (ISSP) and Jama'at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) will continue to conduct frequent attacks on military and civilian targets with the pace and scope likely to expand through much of 2026.  

Middle East and North Africa

In Syria and Iraq, IS remnants are sustaining decentralized networks, conducting assassinations, ambushes, and raids rather than holding territory. Developments in Northeast Syria, particularly Syrian government’s seizure of territory from the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), will result in continued vulnerability due to high tribal tensions and local grievances.

In Yemen, IS and al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) will almost certainly exploit the ongoing civil war, targeting government positions, security forces, and infrastructure while occasionally extending operations across borders.  

While terrorism has been significantly degraded in Egypt and Libya, militancy will pose a persistent threat through much of 2026. In Libya, militant activity is concentrated along the borders with Sudan, Chad, and Niger, where porous frontiers, weak local governance, and ongoing militia conflicts provide opportunities for cross-border movement, arms trafficking, and opportunistic attacks. In Egypt, the Sinai Peninsula remains the primary hotspot for militant operations, with groups targeting security forces, local communities, and foreign personnel.

In 2026, authorities in Algeria, Tunisia, and Morocco will likely continue to actively disrupt plots and dismantle networks seeking to attack civilians, security forces, or foreign interests.  

Horn of Africa

Through 2026, Al-Shabaab will remain highly active in Somalia and surrounding border regions, attempting to conduct cross-border raids targeting security forces, infrastructure, and civilians in Kenya and Ethiopia. Funding from extortion, local taxation, and donations will almost certainly sustain recruitment and operations despite intensified counter-terrorism campaigns.

South and Central Asia

In Afghanistan, Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K) continues to conduct attacks against Taliban-led government targets, foreigners, and Afghan civilians, exploiting fragile governance and factional rivalries. In Pakistan, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) persists with insurgent operations in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and tribal regions, challenging national security and regional stability.  

Palestinian Territories

The West Bank will almost certainly experience episodic but persistent violence, with Hamas’s al-Qassam Brigades and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) regularly attacking civilians and security forces through shootings, stabbings, and vehicle-ramming incidents.  

Terrorism in 2026 will almost certainly remain multi-dimensional and adaptive, thriving where governance is weak, local grievances are easily exploitable, and security forces are overstretched or distracted. The most likely vulnerable areas for attacks include the Sahel, the Horn of Africa, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the Palestinian Territories. Militant groups will likely expand drone use, improve coordination across decentralized networks, and exploit sectarian and ethnic fault lines.

The threat to the United States, Western Europe, and allied partners is likely to remain uneven but persistent, driven primarily by self-radicalized or digitally inspired actors rather than centrally directed plots.  

While multiple militant networks will remain active in 2026, IS remains the most consequential bellwether of the global jihadist trajectory.  IS leadership will continue to provide broad ideological guidance online, while recruitment, facilitation, and operational planning will increasingly occur through decentralized encrypted networks.

Militant activity in 2026 will have a direct impact on foreign companies operating in high-risk regions.

• In the Sahel, companies in mining, logistics, and extractive industries will face heightened risks of kidnappings, attacks on convoys, and facility disruptions.
• In the Horn of Africa, Al-Shabaab’s and, to an extent, the Al-Houthis’ activities will threaten transport corridors and energy infrastructure.
• In the Middle East, operations in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen will be at risk of insurgent attacks and sectarian disruptions.
• In Afghanistan and Pakistan, attacks by IS-K and TTP will likely interrupt construction, transport, and foreign investment projects, while geopolitical distractions may aggravate risks. 

Militant groups across Africa, the Middle East, and South/Central Asia are adapting and innovating, all while nation states are diverting attention and resources from counter-terrorism efforts to other national security priorities. These groups are likely to use new technologies, including drones and digital reconnaissance tools, and modernize their offensive tactics to generate outsized effects despite resource constraints and persistent manpower demands. The combination of centralized directives, decentralized action, and technological adoption ensures that terrorism will remain a transnational challenge with implications for both security and business operations worldwide in 2026. 

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