2026 Atlantic & Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook for Businesses

Executive Summary

The 2026 Atlantic and central Pacific hurricane seasons officially run from June 1 to November 30, with the eastern Pacific season running May 15 through November 30. The Northwest Pacific typhoon season runs throughout the year, but predominantly between May and October. Due to forecasted moderate to strong El Niño conditions, above-normal activity is likely for the eastern and central Pacific hurricane and the northwestern Pacific typhoon seasons, while near-average activity is forecast for the Atlantic hurricane season. Tropical cyclones and hurricane-related damages could prove costly to companies and businesses in the path of tropical storms.  

 

2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

Our 2026 Hurricane Season Outlook draws on previous hurricane season trendlines to provide important context combined with current and forecast atmospheric and oceanic conditions that shape future activity levels. The 2025 season was close to average in terms of overall numbers, with 13 named storms. Of these, five developed into hurricanes, and four of those intensified into major hurricanes at Category 3 or higher. However, only three storms, Barry, Chantal, and Melissa, made landfall, limiting direct impacts. 

 

Impacts of El Niño on Hurricane Season 

El Niño favors stronger hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific basins, and suppresses it in the Atlantic basin, primarily due to changes in the vertical wind shear, trade winds, and atmospheric stability. During El Niño years, storm formation shifts from the western-most tropical Pacific, near the Philippines, toward the central and eastern Pacific, near Micronesia and Guam, resulting in the storms taking longer tracks over water before reaching Asia, giving a greater chance of intensifying and becoming major storms. The shift in storm tracks means countries and islands farther east and north, including Micronesia, Guam, Japan, Korea, eastern mainland China, and Taiwan, often have a greater number of storms making direct impact. 

 

2026 Central and Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook 

The US NOAA has forecast above-normal activity for the 2026 eastern and central Pacific hurricane season due to moderate to strong El Niño conditions. Forecast models predict a 70 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 20 percent chance of a near-normal season, and a 10 percent chance of a below-normal season across both basins. Like the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, the 2025 Pacific hurricane season, which encompasses both the central and eastern Pacific, saw near-normal tropical activity. The eastern Pacific basin hurricane season produced 18 named storms, with nine becoming hurricanes, and three intensifying into major hurricanes. Two named storms formed in the Central Pacific basin, with one, Iona, becoming a major hurricane well south of Hawaii.    

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