Implications of Israel’s Attack in Qatar in a Post-Oct. 7 World

With its attack in Doha, Israel has effectively soured any remaining near-term prospect of improving relations with the Gulf states.  

Nonetheless, Israel is increasingly emboldened, given that the US appears unwilling to restrict Israeli actions following Oct. 7. The brazen attack against Qatar raises the risk that Israel may consider other third countries that host Hamas, namely Türkiye, as legitimate targets. Israel’s actions will almost certainly continue to estrange it from the wider region for the foreseeable future and draw increased global condemnation. Israel, however, will continue to disregard regional isolation so long as it retains the support of the US.

US officials claim they were not informed of the Israeli attack until Israeli aircraft were already en route to the Gulf, while Qatari officials stated that the US only informed them of the attack some 10 minutes after it had started. Lingering doubts over the reliability of the US as a security partner will undoubtedly lead to the Gulf states seeking deeper ties with other regional actors or even rivals, such as Iran, while seeking to bolster connections with non-traditional security partners, such as China or Russia.

The most immediate impact of the attack has been Qatar’s temporary suspension of its mediation efforts in hostage and ceasefire negotiations. Diplomacy requires opposing parties to be willing to negotiate in good faith, and it requires interlocutors. The targeting of senior members of Hamas discussing negotiations, particularly in a neutral country known for its historic role in hosting such negotiations, will do little to build regional faith in Israel as an actor seeking peace. So long as a viable solution to the Israel-Hamas conflict remains achievable, Qatar will continue its efforts to mediate a peaceful solution. While Qatar has claimed it reserves the right to retaliate, it will likely come in the form of additional diplomatic actions rather than via the use of force.  

A member of Qatar’s Internal Security Force was killed in Israel’s Sept. 9 airstrike, which targeted Hamas in a residential area of Doha. (Photo / CC BY)

Arab capitals across the region will be exceptionally concerned with what has transpired and the possible future actions and intentions of Israel. Concern over the reliability of the US as a partner, at least under the current administration of President Donald Trump, will also be growing. The day before the attack in Qatar, senior members of Hamas met in Doha to discuss the latest US ceasefire proposal with the Qatari prime minister. They then agreed that members of Hamas based in Türkiye would travel to Doha to discuss the ceasefire proposal in further detail, believing that Qatar would be a safe place to do so. 

The attack in Qatar has upended the key principle behind the thought process of Arab normalization with Israel, which implied normalization in exchange for a negotiated settlement to the Israeli-Palestinian issue. Before the Oct. 7 attacks, and even amid the Israel-Hamas war, speculation about an expansion of the Abraham Accords to include Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Lebanon had been rife. However, the attack in Qatar will dissuade any such efforts that were allegedly in place to bring Israel into the wider regional fold. 

Israeli nationals traveling to Arab countries that have normalized relations with Israel, namely Bahrain and the UAE, may face increased scrutiny by security forces because of Israel’s attack against a fellow member of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). In addition to increased scrutiny from security forces, cases of antisemitism and hostility toward Israeli travelers could become more prevalent as public sympathy for Palestinians and resentment toward Israel continue to grow amid the Israel-Hamas conflict. 

The total scale of the fallout from Israel’s attack is still unclear. The attack is a watershed moment in the Gulf and the broader Middle East. Trump describing such an unprecedented attack as merely “unfortunate” will have significant implications for security ties between not just the US and Qatar but between Washington and the rest of the Gulf states. The primary impact of Trump’s reaction will be the further entrenchment of the perception among the Gulf states that US security guarantees and defense partnerships are not truly binding. So long as the US fails to enforce red lines vis-à-vis Israeli kinetic action, Tel Aviv will continue to use its military superiority in the region to impose its will not via diplomacy, but by force. 

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