India: Border Insecurity, Geopolitical Tensions, and Evolving Terror Threat Likely to Increase Security Concerns

India faces complex domestic and transnational terror threats, which have evolved from hierarchical command structures to a diffuse, networked ecosystem of affiliates and self-radicalized individuals capable of technology-enabled radicalization, recruitment, financing, plotting, and evasion operations. This has prompted a strategic shift in India's strategy on Pakistan-based terror groups.

In April, an offshoot of Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) killed 26 civilians in the Kashmir Valley. The attack was linked to Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), a terrorist organization based in Pakistan, prompting India to launch missile strikes targeting terrorist bases on Pakistani soil in an exercise named Operation Sindoor. Bilateral hostilities ceased on May 10, though India warned that Operation Sindoor continues, and future attacks will attract military action with no differentiation between terror outfits and their state sponsors. The new approach restricts confidence-building mechanisms to inter-military level only and heightens the likelihood of recurrent armed conflict with Pakistan. Most recently during the November vehicle bombing in Delhi which killed eight people and injured 20 others, the Indian government only formally labelled the incident a terror attack three days later and did not confirm Pakistani links. India's approach seemed aimed to avoid domestic pressure to immediately retaliate while maintaining the element of surprise for a future retaliation. Therefore, the risk of skirmishes between India and Pakistan remains elevated over the medium term. 

The Bangladesh interim government has downplayed intolerance, emboldening far-right Islamist groups, and fueling anti-Bangladesh sentiment and demonstrations in India. Since Bangladesh's constitutional crisis in 2024, anti-Hindu violence has prompted large protests in India and arson and vandalism at the Bangladesh Assistant High Commission in Tripura State in December 2024. Attacks on minorities in Bangladesh could spike in the lead-up to nationwide elections in February 2024.  

The interim Bangladeshi government's inability to counter radical Islamist elements has also allowed extremist groups to reassemble, posing a cross-border terror threat to India. The resurgent terrorist threat in Bangladesh especially threatens India's porous eastern border region, where there is a longstanding threat of radical Islamist preachers infiltrating to spread their ideology in border provinces. Officials have also raised concerns over recent cooperation in arms smuggling and fundraising through illegal narcotics trade between Bangladesh-based armed outfits and ethno-separatist militant outfits in northeastern India.

Strained ties will likely thwart efforts to secure the porous India-Bangladesh border. India has responded to the transnational terror threat by intensifying the deportation of undocumented Bangladeshi migrants, which has been met by pushback from the Bangladesh government. Tensions over former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s asylum in India, which will likely worsen as India ignores calls to extradite the politician following Bangladesh's International Crimes Tribunal sentencing her to death for crimes against humanity. With the departure of the former ruling party, the pro-India Awami League, Bangladesh's remaining leading parties have been antagonistic towards India. Further tensions between India and Bangladesh are likely through 2026.

Furthermore, the growing rapprochement between the Bangladeshi administration and Pakistan is a potential source of instability for India. Dhaka-Islamabad direct trade has resumed for the first time since 1971, alongside the easing of travel restrictions. Relations may further improve if parties historically aligned with Islamabad – such as the Bangladesh National Party (BNP) and Jamaat-e-Islami Bangladesh (JI) – gain power in the February elections. For India, this signals potential expansion of cooperation between anti-India terror outfits in both countries.  

Bilateral ties with China remain inherently fragile due to territorial disputes, strategic mistrust, and increasing economic competition, all set against the backdrop of recent, limited military disengagement. Despite agreeing on border patrol mechanisms in 2024, deterrent posturing along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) persists, both countries have rapidly built border infrastructure, including bases, as well as all-weather transport, logistics, and surveillance.  

While the low likelihood of economic decoupling in the medium term moderates the risk of full-blown or prolonged bilateral conflict, India maintains market access curbs on Chinese goods and is actively promoting distancing from Chinese entities in sensitive sectors, such as defense. India is also aggressively positioning itself as a reshoring hub for firms affected by US-led tariffs and barriers targeting China, especially in the electronics, pharmaceuticals, and green energy sectors. However, the variable and slow implementation and progress of related measures have resulted in continued dependence on Chinese imports for critical uses. Periods of diplomatic tensions may lead to tit-for-tat measures, including travel and regulatory scrutiny for businesses and travelers.  

India has strengthened its engagement with the Taliban in Afghanistan as both sides confront escalating border security concerns linked to Pakistan's alleged sponsorship of militant groups. Since early 2025, India has expanded diplomatic channels with Kabul to improve intelligence-sharing on transnational jihadist networks. This cooperation was underscored during the Foreign Ministers' Summit in October 2025, where Indian and Taliban officials emphasized counterterrorism coordination, cross-border surveillance, and efforts to curb militant mobility through Pakistan's western corridor. 

Recent developments have brought a spotlight on India's worsening security landscape. Intensifying terror activity driven by Pakistan-based terror groups, the resurgence of radical Islamist elements in Bangladesh, and the expanding cooperation between anti-India factions across both states will continue to elevate cross-border infiltration and domestic radicalization risks.  

Political instability in Bangladesh and sharpening diplomatic tensions further undermine India's ability to secure its eastern frontier, while migration crackdowns heighten the potential for unrest in border states. Simultaneously, India's growing counterterrorism engagement with the Taliban, due to shared concerns over Pakistan's alleged sponsorship of militant groups, adds a new regional dynamic that underscores the fragmentation of traditional security alignments.  

India and China's mutual mistrust combined with sustained militarization along the LAC, will likewise maintain the risk of border flare-ups. Altogether, India faces a prolonged period of elevated terror threats, skirmish risks, strained diplomatic relations, and increasing reliance on unconventional regional partnerships to mitigate escalating security pressures. 

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