Middle East: Rising Public Health Threats Driven by Conflict, Displacement, and Supply Disruptions

• The Middle East conflict is placing a strain on health infrastructure, and disrupting services and access for patients.

• Displacement and damaged infrastructure increase outbreak risks and interrupt essential, routine medical care.

• Supply disruptions and funding gaps threaten medicines, oxygen, and humanitarian response capacity across the region.

The most immediate public health impact has been a rise in trauma-related deaths and injuries, placing pressure on emergency medical systems and hospital capacity. Large casualty events create sudden demand for trauma surgery, blood transfusions, intensive care, and emergency transport services. As of March 6, the WHO reported more than 7,000 injuries and over 1,000 deaths across the region.  

As of March 5, Iran has experienced the largest share of casualties, with national authorities reporting more than 925 deaths and over 6,100 injuries. In Lebanon, authorities have reported at least 1,130 injuries and 394 deaths since March 2.  

Healthcare services are also under increasing strain. Even prior to the latest escalation, many health systems in the region were already operating near the limits of their capacity.   

• Iran: The WHO has verified 14 attacks on healthcare facilities in Iran since Feb. 28, resulting in four deaths among health workers. Hospitals remain operational and have expanded trauma capacity. Still, facilities are managing surges in injuries while facing disruptions to supplies, staff safety concerns, and reduced patient access.  
• Lebanon: Evacuation orders and ongoing insecurity have resulted in the closure of 43 primary health care centers and five hospitals. Health workers have also been directly affected, with at least 16 injured and nine killed.  
• Gaza: The health system remains extremely fragile. Stocks of essential medicines, trauma supplies, and surgical consumables are critically low, while fuel shortages continue to constrain hospital operations. Medical evacuations through Rafah and Kerem Shalom have been suspended since Feb. 28.  

Patients with chronic illnesses are also experiencing interruptions to routine treatment, while disease surveillance systems are under pressure. Damage to health facilities or disruptions affecting staff and patients can produce cascading public health consequences beyond immediate injuries. 

Population displacement has emerged as another major public health concern. Preliminary estimates indicate that approximately 100,000 people have left Tehran since the escalation began, while displacement within Lebanon has also increased significantly, with approximately 112,525 people displaced across more than 514 shelters as of March 8. 

Displacement and rapid population movements increase the risk of communicable disease transmission due to crowding and limited sanitation infrastructure in shelters. Displacement also disrupts continuity of care for vulnerable populations, including pregnant women, infants, older adults, and individuals with chronic illnesses. 

Environmental health risks are also emerging. Air quality in Tehran has deteriorated following strike-related fires at fuel and industrial facilities that released smoke and pollutants into the atmosphere. Air quality is likely to remain degraded in the near term, increasing health risks for vulnerable populations, including children, older adults, pregnant women, and individuals with respiratory or cardiovascular conditions.  

Regional supply chains for health resources are also under pressure. Supply chain interruptions can quickly translate into health system stress, particularly in locations where facilities already operate with limited reserves. Shortages of antibiotics, insulin, anesthetics, trauma supplies, and medical oxygen can limit treatment capacity for both conflict-related injuries and routine health conditions. Interruptions in fuel deliveries may also affect hospital generators and refrigeration systems required for vaccine storage and laboratory functions. In settings already facing fragile health infrastructure, even brief supply disruptions can have disproportionate health impacts. 

Health authorities have also highlighted lower-probability but high-impact risks associated with damage to critical infrastructure. The WHO has warned that any incident involving nuclear facilities could have serious public health consequences.  While the likelihood of a radiological release is currently assessed as low, damage to such facilities could result in environmental contamination, population exposure risks, and complex cross-border public health implications.   

Additionally, regional health authorities are emphasizing the need to maintain disease surveillance systems to detect outbreaks early, particularly in areas experiencing displacement, infrastructure disruption, or reduced access to routine health services. 

Continued escalation across the Middle East could significantly disrupt health services and humanitarian operations in the coming weeks. Displacement, infrastructure damage, and supply chain interruptions increase the likelihood of indirect health impacts, including excess mortality from delayed treatment, medication shortages, and reduced access to routine care. 

Funding shortfalls further constrain humanitarian operations. According to the WHO, emergency response efforts face a substantial funding gap, limiting surge staffing, medical supply distribution, and critical public health interventions such as vaccination and disease surveillance. If hostilities persist or expand geographically, hospitals, emergency services, and humanitarian response systems will face growing strain. At the same time, displaced populations remain at elevated risk for communicable disease, mental health challenges, and interrupted essential care. This represents the most complete data available as of March 9. 

If you are in the region, Crisis24 has the capabilities to provide your organization with secure transportation, personal protection, critical supplies, internal relocations and evacuation, contingency planning, and medical assistance.  Learn more about our Middle East security and operational support capabilities.

For the most up-to-date alerts and information, access Crisis24 Horizon 24/7. 

Register today for our next webinar on Thursday, March 19, at 8:00 AM EDT, or watch on-demand and join Crisis24 experts as they provide an update on the current conflict and its global impacts.