Middle East Conflict: Regional Escalation, Travel Disruption, and What to do Now

• The US–Israel conflict with Iran has already become regionwide and will almost certainly intensify in the near term, producing severe aviation, business, and security disruptions across the Gulf and wider Middle East.
• Even with senior Iranian leadership losses, including Khamenei, Iran’s near-term capacity and intent to conduct regional attacks will likely remain intact due to longtime  succession planning and IRGC operational control.
• The UAE is emerging as an operational center of gravity. Dubai International Airport (DXB), the world’s second-busiest international airport and a critical global aviation hub, remains closed. Attack impacts have caused casualties and fires in Dubai and Abu Dhabi.  

Hostilities began early Feb. 28 when US and Israeli forces launched a campaign of air strikes targeting leadership and military sites throughout Iran, as well as facilities believed to be associated with Iran’s nuclear program. Iran continues to retaliate with missile and drone attacks against Israel, as well as against US military facilities and nearby infrastructure across the Middle East, including in the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan.

Preliminary information indicates that the initial wave of Israel Defense Forces (IDF) airstrikes on Iran targeted the country’s top political and security leadership. Iranian state media has since confirmed the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in these strikes early March 1. Other senior figures reportedly killed include Mohammad Pakpour, the Commander in Chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and Aziz Nasirzadeh, the Defense Minister.

Foreign embassies in capitals throughout the Middle East—including those of Australia, Canada, France, Germany, the UK, and the US—have issued warnings to their nationals in the region, ranging from instructions to exercise caution to shelter-in-place orders, depending on location and threat conditions. Several governments, including the UK, are advising their citizens to leave Iran as soon as commercial options or evacuation arrangements permit. 

Iran 

Iranian authorities have heightened security measures nationwide amid uncertainty regarding leadership succession and further military operations. Officials have indicated that retaliatory measures are ongoing, raising the likelihood of continued exchanges in the coming days.

Preliminary reporting indicates substantial casualties since Feb. 28. Explosions and missile impacts were reported in Tehran, Isfahan, Karaj, Kermanshah, Lorestan, Tabriz, Qom, and other areas in western and central Iran.

Significant aviation disruption continues. Iran has closed its national airspace to civilian traffic. The country also continues to experience severe internet and telecommunications disruptions.

Increased security deployments and localized ground transport disruptions are likely near impact areas nationwide. Authorities may implement further internal restrictions, including curfews, movement controls, or border measures.

Advice:  

• Do not travel to Iran.  
• Those currently in-country should shelter in place. Stay away from windows and exterior walls if explosions or air-raid sirens are heard in your area.  
• Monitor reputable local media and follow the directives of security forces, especially when instructed to seek refuge in air-raid shelters.  
• Maintain contact with diplomatic representations.  
• Stock basic supplies and essential medications.

Israel

Israel is maintaining a state of emergency declared Feb. 28. Since the start of the conflict, Israeli territory has come under multiple retaliatory attacks from Iran, prompting residents to take refuge in air raid shelters. While the IDF has successfully intercepted many incoming missiles, projectiles have impacted Tel Aviv and Beit Shemesh.

Overnight March 1-2, exchanges of fire began between Israeli forces and Hizbollah, with rockets launched into northern Israel and Israeli airstrikes targeting southern Lebanon and the southern suburbs of Beirut.

Israel’s Health Ministry has directed hospitals to move activity into protected spaces and discharge patients where possible. Home Front Command has issued various updates in response, including reports of bans on public gatherings and closures of schools and workplaces.

Authorities will almost certainly maintain an extremely tight security posture for the foreseeable future. Additional Iranian strikes on major Israeli cities are highly likely in the coming days.  

Advice:  

• Defer non-essential travel.  
• Strictly heed all instructions of local authorities.  
• If air raid sirens sound, proceed to the nearest shelter immediately; if unable to reach a shelter, take cover in place and keep away from windows and doors.  
• Remain in a protected area until authorities give the all-clear.

The UAE

Hundreds of missiles and drones have been launched toward the United Arab Emirates. Debris from interceptions has fallen within the country, resulting in casualties and material damage to residential buildings, airports, and hotels. Authorities have temporarily closed the airspace.

Authorities will likely maintain an elevated security posture, as further missile and drone launches remain possible over the coming days. Transport and business disruption — as well as ongoing emergency response operations — will probably continue in and around locations affected by impacts or falling debris.

Advice:

• In the area, shelter in place and stay indoors away from windows.
• Follow only official alerts from UAE authorities and your embassy.  
• Do not share unverified information.  
• Expect continued disruptions to flights, roads, and businesses.  
• Keep your phone charged and key documents/medications ready in case you need to move quickly.
• Send brief, regular safety check-ins to family or your organization. 

Disruptions are already severe and likely to intensify in the coming hours and days. The UAE has implemented an airspace closure that significantly restricts civilian operations, and flight operations at Dubai International (DXB) and Dubai World Central – Al Maktoum International (DWC) have been suspended. The shutdown of Dubai has major second-order implications for global air cargo, passenger routing, insurance exposure, and logistics chains.

Bahrain, Israel, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Syria, and are also maintaining total airspace closures. Airspace Saudi Arabia and Oman remain open. Jordan, Egypt, and Lebanon are not under full closure but continue to experience flight diversions and air traffic adjustments due to nearby restricted zone.  

The European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) has issued an aviation advisory to air operators prohibiting all flights serving the EU from operating across parts of the Middle East through at least March 3. 

Moreover, several airlines have canceled flights in the region, including:  

• Aegean Airlines (A3): All flights to and from Tel Aviv, Beirut, and Erbil through March 2.
• Air Canada (AC): All flights to and from Dubai suspended through March 3; all flights to and from Israel suspended through March 8.
• Air France (AF): All flights to and from Tel Aviv and Beirut.
• KLM (KL): All flights to and from Tel Aviv, Dubai, Dammam, and Riyadh.
• Air India (AI): All flights to or through Middle East destinations.
• British Airways (BA): All flights to Tel Aviv and Bahrain through March 4.
• Emirates (EK): All operations to and from Dubai suspended until 15:00 March 2.
• Etihad Airways (EY): All operations to and from Abu Dhabi suspended until 02:00 March 2.
• IndiGo (6E): All flights to Middle East destinations cancelled through March 1.
• Lufthansa (LH): Flights to Tel Aviv, Beirut, Amman, Erbil, Dammam, and Tehran suspended through March 8.
• Norwegian Air (NAN): All flights to and from Dubai suspended through March 4.
• Wizz Air (W6): All flights to and from Israel, Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Amman suspended through March 7; flights to and from Saudi Arabia suspended through March 2.
• Turkish Airlines (TK): Flights to Qatar, Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Oman, and Jordan.
• Qatar Airways (QR): All flights to and from Doha are suspended for the duration of the Qatari airspace closure.

For travelers:  

• Account for all staff across the region (prioritize UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, Israel) with fixed-time check-ins and an escalation ladder for missed contact.
• Suspend non-essential travel to the region; expect backlogs even after reopenings.
• Treat all itineraries through Gulf hubs as high failure-risk; keep people in safe lodging until confirmed viable routes exist and build plans that do not rely on single-airport outcomes.  
• Avoid lodging adjacent to airports/ports/military or diplomatic facilities. Pre-plan relocation to lower-risk districts if needed.  
• Re-validate aviation contingencies. Choose alternative routings outside closed airspaces; policies for stranded travelers; approvals for extended lodging and ground transport.

For in-region operations:  

• Shift to continuity mode (remote work where possible), limit movement, review site security posture, and prepare for short-notice restrictions and localized access controls
• Harden shelter posture. Prepare 72-hour readiness (water, food, meds, power banks, cash), safe-room identification, and guidance to avoid windows/exterior walls during alerts.
• Brief leadership on trigger points: renewed large-scale strikes, proxy activation, major infrastructure hit (airport/port/energy), or expanded airspace closures.

If you are in the region, Crisis24 has the capabilities to provide your organization with secure transportation, personal protection, critical supplies, internal relocations and evacuation, contingency planning, and medical assistance. 

Contact Crisis24 to discuss your exposure and options