Mozambique LNG Restart Faces Elevated Security Risks amid Persistent Insurgent Threats

Since 2017, Islamist-linked insurgent groups have maintained a presence across parts of Cabo Delgado, exploiting long-standing socioeconomic grievances, displacement, and gaps in local governance. While international and regional security forces have reduced the frequency of large-scale attacks near major population centers, the threat environment remains elevated – particularly in rural and peri-coastal areas.

Insurgent activity increasingly relies on small, mobile units operating in remote terrain, where access routes are limited and local communities face ongoing economic pressure. As a result, risks often manifest indirectly through localized disruptions, community tensions, and pressure on supply chains rather than direct attacks on hardened energy infrastructure. 

Security conditions vary significantly between offshore and inland environments.  

• Offshore LNG assets benefit from layered security measures, restricted access, and maritime patrols that continue to limit credible threats to platforms and vessels.  
• Inland operations, however, face more variable conditions due to terrain, population movement, and reliance on overland logistics.

For organizations supporting LNG development, this divergence underscores the importance of tailored security postures that account for both physical protection and broader community engagement. 

• Energy and extractive companies should anticipate sustained security costs and plan for operating in an elevated threat environment over the medium term.
• Contractors and supply chain partners face increased exposure to localized disruptions, particularly along access routes and in remote project areas.
• Foreign nationals and travelers remain at heightened risk of opportunistic attacks, detention, and movement restrictions, especially outside secure zones.

While a direct attack on LNG facilities remains unlikely, continued insurgent activity means that risk levels are unlikely to normalize in the near term. 

GardaWorld/Crisis24 possesses the necessary operational capabilities to enable, advise, and support businesses in Mozambique. Here’s what we’re watching:

• The pace and scale of LNG construction activity
• Shifts in insurgent activity patterns in northern Mozambique
• Government and partner efforts to balance security operations with community engagement 

Access the full Mozambique security outlook in Crisis24’s Global Risk Forecast for deeper analysis, forward-looking assessments, and operational insights.