Record Drought in Syria Exacerbating Humanitarian Challenges and Hampering Postwar Rebuild

Below-average rainfall since 2020 has led to the region suffering its worst drought in nearly 40 years. Syria has been particularly hard hit, as it already faces widespread food insecurity and is suffering from years of economic decline during 14 years of conflict. The drought situation has been exacerbated in recent months by more acutely below-average rainfall; most of the country received between 20-50 percent less rainfall than the seasonal average. The regionwide nature of the drought has also meant that water shortages in neighboring Lebanon have led to rivers flowing into Syria from the west drying up, while other major rivers, such as the Euphrates in the east and the Barada in Damascus, have reached dangerously low levels. Dried-out or low rivers not only deprive farmers of a vital water source for crop irrigation, but also impact fishing communities.

Key food-producing governorates such as Al-Hasakeh, Aleppo, and Ar-Raqqa have been heavily affected. The below-average precipitation, combined with conflict-related damage to irrigation networks and other agricultural infrastructure, as well as the contamination of agricultural land by mines and rubble, has caused widespread crop failures. Prior to the 2011 uprising, Syrian farmers produced an average of around 3.5-4.5 million tons of wheat per year. Production levels dropped to around 2.2-2.6 million tons during the years of conflict, resulting in approximately 60-70 percent of the country's wheat needs to feed its 23 million population being imported. Largely due to the worsening drought, the 2024-2025 agricultural season is estimated to only produce around 900,000-1.1 million tons of wheat, one of the lowest seasons ever recorded. The shortage could lead to the number of people suffering from food insecurity in the country rising to more than 16 million. 

Irrigation practices remain heavily rainfall-based and are considered generally outdated. There is an opportunity to build back better post-conflict by investing in a more diverse irrigation network and drought-resistant crops; however, it remains to be seen whether this can be achieved. What is clear is that urgent investment is needed across the agricultural sector to enable farmers to increase food production and help wean the country off its unsustainable reliance on foreign aid and imports to feed its population.

However, the transitional government is already facing postwar reconstruction costs projected to be in the hundreds of billions of dollars, as well as many other challenges, such as sectarian clashes, and trying to implement reforms across a fragmented country. Therefore, it appears unlikely, at least in the short term, that they will have either the capability or make it a top priority to achieve significant strides in tackling the deteriorating drought crisis. 

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