Alert: Escalated Tensions Between India And Pakistan Likely To Persist

Authorities in border districts of both countries had announced school closures through at least May 12, followed by a scheduled summer vacation. Temporary and localized stay-home orders, evacuations, and suspensions of mobile internet services and entry for non-residents are likely in border villages on both sides of the Line of Control (LoC) in Jammu and Kashmir in the coming days as a precaution until damage assessments are complete. Indian authorities may extend or reinstate blackout orders - requiring residents switch off lights and remain indoors - in border districts.

Heightened security will continue in the urban centers of both countries, including bolstered deployment at airports and diplomatic, military, and government facilities. Patrols and random checks are also likely in various public places, such as transport hubs, religious sites, and tourist areas, including hotels and entertainment venues, as well as at large events, including rescheduled cricket tournaments in both countries. 

Cyberattacks targeting government and critical infrastructure websites remain possible. However, the risk of outages affecting critical services, such as air travel, telecommunications, banking, and utilities, remains low.

Pakistani and Indian authorities continue to close their airspace to all aircraft with an Indian or Pakistani registration, respectively. This includes a ban on planes owned, operated, or leased by commercial or military operators from either side until at least May 23. The ban does not apply to non-Indian carriers flying to or from India.

Pakistan reopened its airspace for all other flights May 10. Several airlines, including Air Arabia, Emirates, Etihad, Flydubai, and Qatar Airways, have reportedly reinstated flights to Pakistan as of May 12. However, multiple European and Asian air carriers continue to indefinitely suspend overflight of Pakistan as a precaution; reinstation is likely in the coming days if ceasefire violations decline. 

India announced the reopening of its western airspace May 12 and allowed civilian flights to resume at 32 airports including Adampur, Ambala, Awantipur , Bathinda, Bhuj, Bikaner, Halwara, Hindon, Jaisalmer, Jamnagar, Kandla, Kangra-Gaggal, Keshod, Kishangarh, Kullu Manali, Ludhiana, Mundra, Naliya, Pathankot, Patiala, Porbandar, Sarsawa, Shimla, Thoise, and Uttarlai airports. Although affected airports have reopened, air carriers are likely to take multiple days to fully resume flights. IndiGo and Air India airlines have suspended two-way flight operations to and from selected airports on May 13, citing safety concerns. IndiGo flights to Amritsar, Chandigarh, Jammu, Leh, Rajkot, and Srinagar remain suspended. Air India flights to Amritsar, Bhuj, Chandigarh, Leh, Jamnagar, Jammu, Jodhpur, and, Rajkot, also remain suspended. Other airlines continue to facilitate selected flights to these airports. Closure of Pakistani airspace to Indian-registered aircraft is also delaying flights, especially between India and destinations in Europe, the Middle East, and North America.

Transport links between India and Pakistan will remain severely limited until further notice, as the Attari-Wagah pedestrian crossing and the Kartarpur Corridor used by Sikh pilgrims are indefinitely closed. 

Nationalist demonstrations, including solidarity and celebratory rallies by political parties and civilians over the ceasefire and diplomatic tensions, remain likely in both countries through mid-May, mainly in urban centers. Sporadic violence and boycotts of perceived hostile organizations are possible. The use of various cyber tactics, such as disinformation campaigns, to influence public opinion can heighten the risk of communal tensions, especially in India.

• Do not travel within 120 km (75 miles) of the India-Pakistan border due to the recent military strikes.
• Do not travel to the disputed Jammu and Kashmir region.
• Delay nonessential travel to Pakistan until the situation stabilizes.
• Exercise a high degree of caution if operating in either country - avoid exposure to prominent sites, such as large public events, special economic zones, military installations, and religious sites, as a precaution.
• Remain mindful of local laws, such as the prohibition on photography in high-security zones and the participation of foreigners in protests.
• Confirm flights; do not check out of accommodations before confirming onward travel.
• Arrive at airports at least three hours in advance due to intensified security processing.
• Plan accordingly for potential business and transport disruptions - stockpile essential items during any announced drills or official instructions.
• Maintain contact with your diplomatic mission.
• Contact security providers for further advice or recommendations.

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