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Intelligence Analysis

Middle East Conflict: Disruptions Update

5 MAR 2026

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6 min read


desert road Middle East

Heightened tensions and significant disruptions to travel, transport, energy infrastructure, and business operations are likely to persist across parts of the Middle East through at least late March as the conflict between Iran, the US, and Israel continues.

Explosions, warning sirens, and missile and drone intercepts have continued to be reported across multiple Gulf and Levant states since Feb. 28. Governments are maintaining heightened security postures and deploying additional resources as required.

Travel Disruptions

Foreign embassies across the Middle East have expanded travel advisories since Feb. 28 amid escalating hostilities. Some diplomatic representations have closed in response to the armed conflict, and advisories continue to be updated near-daily.

Airspace conditions across the region remain fluid and subject to rapid change with minimal notice. Even open airspaces are subject to disruptions in response to increased demand and security developments and assessments.

Airline operations remain significantly disrupted due to ongoing airspace closures and security restrictions. Carriers continue to suspend or reroute services to affected destinations in the Middle East.

Maritime Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and Beyond

The IRGC claimed on March 4 that the Strait of Hormuz is under the "complete control" of Iran’s navy and warned that vessels transiting the waterway risk missile or drone damage. However, the US claims it has sunk more than 20 Iranian vessels during recent operations, casting uncertainty over Iran’s operational naval presence in the area.

Commercial shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz remains significantly reduced, with several major shipping lines suspending transits and some maritime insurers withdrawing or sharply increasing war risk coverage for operations in the Persian Gulf.

Electronic navigation interference has also been reported in and around the Strait, increasing maritime risk.

The US sank Iranian frigate IRIS Dena off the southern coast of Sri Lanka, per a March 4 statement from the US military. Authorities in Sri Lanka said the strike killed at least 87 people.

Short-Term Outlook

The regional environment remains highly volatile. Further attacks are likely in the near term, with continued disruption to air travel, Strait of Hormuz shipping, Gulf energy infrastructure, and supply chains.

Broader escalation risks persist, including expanded ground operations in Lebanon and potential attacks by Iranian-aligned groups in Yemen and Iraq targeting Israeli or US interests.

Situational Update by Country

Bahrain: 

  • Early March 6, Bahraini authorities reported that an Iranian attack targeted two hotels and a residential building in Manama, causing material damage; no deaths were reported. On March 5, officials said that an Iranian missile strike caused a fire to break out at a Bapco Energies refinery unit; the fire has been contained, and no casualties were reported. Operations are reportedly continuing at the refinery.
  • Airspace is closed. 

Cyprus

  • Sirens sounded at RAF Akrotiri on March 5 as UK Defence Secretary John Healey visited the base. No projectile or drone impacts were reported. 
  • Airspace is open.

Egypt:

  • Extensive flight cancellations reported in Egypt as of March 3.
  • Airspace is open.

Iraq: 

  • Recent reports suggest that Kurdish dissident fighters in northern Iraq are preparing for a potential cross-border military operation in Iran. Iran announced on March 5 operations to target Kurdish fighters in northern Iraq.
  • Airspace is closed. 

Isarel

  • As of March 5, Israel is maintaining a state of emergency (declared Feb. 28). 
  • Given the slowing rate of Iranian missile fire toward Israel, the Home Front Command guidelines will ease from 12:00 IST on March 5, allowing gatherings of up to 50 people as well as workplace activities, provided a shelter can be reached in sufficient time. Educational activities will remain prohibited. The adjusted measures will remain in effect until at least 20:00 March 7. 
  • As of March 5, Israeli air defense systems were working to intercept incoming Iranian missiles. Sirens were activated in communities across central and northeastern Israel. Ben Gurion International Airport (TLV) and the area near Markaba were reportedly targeted. No casualties were immediately reported.
  • The Israel–Egypt border crossing at Taba is operational.
  • The Israel–Jordan border crossings – Yitzhak Rabin (Wadi Araba), Allenby Bridge (King Hussein Bridge), and Jordan River (Sheikh Hussein Bridge) – remain open Sunday–Friday with reduced hours on Fridays and are closed on Saturdays; vehicles are accepted at the Yitzhak Rabin (Wadi Araba) crossing until 19:00. Reduced weekday hours apply at the Jordan River (Sheikh Hussein Bridge) crossing during Ramadan (through March 18).
  • Airspace is closed, except for limited exceptional flights, including inbound repatriation flights at Ben Gurion International Airport (TLV).

Kuwait:

  • Early March 6, emerging reports indicated that Iran allegedly struck the Ali Al-Salem Airbase. On March 5, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported that an oil tanker, identified as the Bahamas-flagged Sonangol Namibe, was targeted in the Strait of Hormuz about 56 km (35 miles) southeast of Mubarak Al-Kabeer, Kuwait, prompting an explosion. A small vessel departed the area following the incident. No injuries were reported. Discharge from the tanker, initially reported to be oil, was ballast water.
  • Airspace is closed.

Lebanon

  • Early March 6, Israeli forces conducted a major series of airstrikes in the southern suburbs of Beirut, causing at least three buildings to collapse. Israeli forces conducted additional airstrikes in the country, including in the southern suburbs of Beirut, Nabatieh District, Tyre District, and Zahle District, on March 5. 
  • Before launching airstrikes in the southern suburbs of the capital on March 5, Israel issued specific evacuation instructions, advising all local residents to leave the area. Israeli forces also continued their ground incursion in southern Lebanon, while urging Lebanese civilians to evacuate from the south of the country to north of the Litani River.
  • Airspace is open, but flight disruptions reported. 

Oman

  • On March 3, 2026, a drone strike targeted the Port of Duqm in Oman, causing material damage but no casualties. In the aftermath, operations at the Port of Duqm and Asyad Drydock have been suspended, severely impacting the Port of Salalah's activities as well.
  • The first UK-government-organized charter flight transporting its nationals back to the UK from the Middle East departed Muscat International Airport (MCT) on March 5.
  • There are no reports of formal land border closures between Iran and Oman or the UAE, though security conditions remain dynamic and subject to change. Delays and disruptions are likely.
  • Airspace is open. 

Qatar:

  • Qatar’s Defence Ministry confirmed early March 5 that its air defence systems were intercepting a missile attack over Doha, with multiple explosions reported above the capital. A missile impact was reported near Al-Udeid Air Base.
  • Airspace is closed.

Saudi Arabia

  • Early March 6, the Saudi Defense Ministry announced the interception and destruction of three ballistic missiles targeting Prince Sultan Airbase in Al-Kharj Governorate. 
  • On March 5, Saudi forces intercepted three cruise missiles and three drones in/near Al-Kharj Governorate, Riyadh Province, as well as a drone east of Al-Jowf Province.
  • Airspace is open, but partial sector closures reported. 

Syria:

  • The Syrian Defense Ministry asserted on March 5 that its deployment of reinforcements along Syria's borders with Lebanon and Iraq is for defensive purposes. An Iranian drone was also intercepted in southern Syria.
  • Also, on March 5, a SyrianAir (RB) flight departed Aleppo International Airport (ALP) and safely landed in Istanbul, highlighting the reopening of ALP and an air corridor from Aleppo to the Mediterranean Sea.
  • Airspace is closed, except for Aleppo-Mediterranean air corridor and ALP.

Türkiye:

  • Turkiye and Iran have continued to maintain restrictions on passenger day-trip crossings at the three border gates along their shared frontier. Turkish authorities are permitting Turkish citizens and third-country nationals to enter from Iran, while Iranian authorities are allowing Iranian nationals to return.
  • Airspace is open.

UAE: 

  • On March 5, the government claimed to have intercepted and destroyed six ballistic missiles and 125 drones during the course of the day. A further balistic missile and six drones fell within the country's territory, reportedly injuring six people.
  • Airspace is partially closed. Limited flight operations have resumed at airports serving Dubai and Abu Dhabi.

Advice

Shelter in place (be prepared for at least 72 hours) and regularly check in with your organization regarding relocation or evacuation plans and required personal preparedness for movement. Register with your diplomatic representation and consult your organization if repatriation flights become available. Minimize nonessential movement and only travel to the airport when you have a confirmed flight.

For the most up-to-date alerts and information, access Crisis24 Horizon 24/7. 

If you are in the region, Crisis24 has the capabilities to provide your organization with secure transportationpersonal protection, critical supplies, internal relocations and evacuationcontingency planning, and medical assistance.  

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