Middle East Conflict Poses Growing Health and Environmental Risks

• The conflict is driving immediate, multi-domain environmental and public health risks across air, water, and industrial systems.

• Impacts are likely to spread regionally through interconnected pathways, particularly via marine and atmospheric systems.

• The primary risk is cumulative and long-term, with sustained degradation expected beyond the conflict period. 

The following outlines the primary pathways through which these impacts are emerging and compounding:  

US and Israeli strikes on oil depots and fuel logistics infrastructure in Iran are generating large-scale fires and sustained smoke plumes over populated areas, particularly in Tehran. These fires are releasing soot, vaporized hydrocarbons, toxic chemicals, and fine particulate matter, driving acute air quality deterioration and increasing the likelihood of sustained urban air quality crises in densely populated areas.

Short-term exposure is likely to increase respiratory and cardiovascular stress, while prolonged exposure may elevate risks of chronic respiratory disease and cancer. Secondary contamination of air, water, and food systems disproportionately increases risk for vulnerable populations. If sustained, these dynamics are likely to drive recurring air quality disruptions, particularly in major urban centers, with implications for workforce health, public safety measures, and operational continuity. 

Desalination plants are critical for potable water supply across Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and Oman. Iranian authorities have threatened to target these facilities following indications that Washington may strike Iran’s electricity grid. Damage from missile and drone strikes could create a high-impact risk of widespread water supply disruption and result in the uncontrolled release of treatment chemicals into surrounding marine environments.

Reduced access to clean water is likely to elevate public health risks and place immediate pressure on emergency supply systems. In water-dependent urban environments, even short-term disruption could strain healthcare, sanitation, and industrial operations. At the same time, chemical discharge and potential seawater contamination from oil spills may degrade coastal ecosystems, creating reinforcing effects that further disrupt water production and prolong recovery timelines. 

The war in the Middle East has resulted in explosions at oil, military, and dual-use sites, creating long-term environmental and public health risks that are difficult to remediate. These dynamics increase the likelihood of persistent contaminants being introduced into soil and groundwater, putting the local population and travelers potentially at risk in the long term.

Regional dust storms may further disperse contaminated particles beyond initial impact zones. Contamination is likely to persist over the long term, increasing risks of carcinogenic exposure and ecosystem degradation. Limited cleanup capacity due to ongoing conflict, restricted access, and reduced transparency raises the likelihood of environmental damage and public health impacts for decades. 

The maritime domain has emerged as a critical pathway for environmental risk as the conflict increasingly affects energy export infrastructure and commercial shipping routes. Kharg Island and other hydrocarbon export sites remain critical nodes in Iran’s crude export system, making them high-risk targets.

Strikes on storage, terminal, or loading infrastructure increase the likelihood of oil spills into the Persian Gulf. Degraded security conditions in the Strait of Hormuz are increasing the likelihood of tanker collisions, fires, and vessel damage in one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints.

These dynamics increase the likelihood of large-scale hydrocarbon releases into marine and coastal environments, with the potential to disrupt shipping operations, degrade coastal infrastructure, and create sustained environmental exposure. 

The conflict is expanding to include targeting industrial and chemical infrastructure, expanding the risk of hazardous material incidents beyond traditional military and energy targets. In densely populated or industrialized areas, incidents could trigger cascading impacts, including evacuations, disruption to critical infrastructure, and prolonged environmental remediation requirements.

The primary risk is driven by secondary effects like fires, leaks, and uncontrolled chemical reactions. This can significantly increase the scale and duration of health and environmental impacts, particularly where response capacity is limited or delayed. 

The Persian Gulf’s semi-enclosed and environmentally sensitive ecosystem increases its vulnerability. For example, its support of coral reefs, seagrass beds, and key marine species limits water exchange, increasing the Persian Gulf’s vulnerability to pollution accumulation and slowing recovery.

Conflict-related maritime disruption, including attacks on vessels and infrastructure, combined with electromagnetic interference affecting navigation, is also increasing the risk of collisions, fires, and hydrocarbon releases. Damaged or sunken vessels and degraded port infrastructure may act as persistent pollution sources.

Marine contamination is likely to extend beyond initial incident sites due to regional water circulation, with downstream effects on biodiversity, fisheries, desalination systems, and coastal economies. These dynamics increase the potential of prolonged environmental degradation, with direct implications for food security, water production, and economic activity across Gulf states. 

The environmental and public health risks outlined are likely to persist beyond the duration of active conflict, creating a complex and prolonged risk environment for governments and businesses operating in or connected to the region. Environmental damage, including air, soil, and marine contamination, is likely to be cumulative, geographically diffuse, and difficult to remediate.

Fires, sustained military operations, and disruption to energy infrastructure are expected to generate significant greenhouse gas emissions during the conflict. Post-conflict reconstruction is likely to drive a secondary surge in emissions, as rebuilding efforts require large volumes of energy-intensive materials such as cement, steel, wood, and sand.

When the dust settles in a post-conflict environment in the Middle East, the combined effect of conflict-related emissions and reconstruction activity is likely to result in a sustained increase in emissions. As such, organizations will need to account for the longer-term environmental and regulatory consequences that will shape operating conditions well after the war subsides. These risks extend beyond immediate operational disruption. Impacts to water quality, food systems, and coastal infrastructure may affect supply chains, workforce stability, and business continuity.  

At the same time, conflict-related environmental damage, particularly emissions and hazardous material exposure, is likely to attract increased regulatory scrutiny and reputational risk. 

If you are in the region, Crisis24 has the capabilities to provide your organization with secure transportation, personal protection, critical supplies, internal relocations and evacuation, contingency planning, and medical assistance.  Learn more about our Middle East security and operational support capabilities.

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