- Nov. 27 - Turkish-owned oil tanker Mersin was damaged by explosions while anchored near Dakar, Senegal. Mersin was not sanctioned itself, but its operator, Türkiye's Besiktas Shipping, has had several of its tankers listed as supporting Russian aggression by Ukraine's Main Directorate of Intelligence (GUR).
- Nov. 28 - Ukraine targeted two Gambian-flagged sanctioned tankers, Kairos and Virat, with USVs while they were sailing to Russia in the southern Black Sea near Türkiye.
- Nov. 29 - Ukraine attacked Russia's Port of Novorossiysk, damaging the mooring facility at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) marine terminal.
- Dec. 2 - A Russian-owned MIDVOLGA-2, was struck off the coast of Türkiye, while it was sailing from Russia to Georgia, though Ukraine has denied involvement in the attack.
- Dec. 2 - Besiktas Shipping announced that it will halt any dealings with Russia.
- Dec. 10 - Ukraine struck the Gambian-flagged tanker Dashan with USVs in the southern Black Sea, with the vessel en-route to Russia.
- Dec. 10/11 – Ukraine used long-range drones to strike oil and gas rigs in the Caspian Sea’s Vladimir Filanovksy field, halting production.
The timing of Ukraine's strikes is also notable given the current diplomatic pressure surrounding US-Russia-Ukraine negotiations. The attacks expose Ukraine's own maritime corridor to reprisals, suggesting that it expects the strategic payoff to outweigh the potential costs. The attacks provide Ukraine with leverage in talks, eroding Moscow's image of control and exposing the fragility of its energy export routes. Meanwhile, though a response by Moscow that disrupts Ukrainian grain exports would significantly harm Kyiv economically, it would also further isolate Russia diplomatically, given the global importance of Ukrainian grain to food security and the dependence of several of Russia’s own partners on these supplies. Such a move would risk alienating countries that Moscow can ill afford to lose, particularly in Africa, the Middle East, and parts of Asia, where Ukrainian grain remains a critical import.
Despite this, Russia will likely still commence more intense strikes against Ukrainian ports, damaging infrastructure and commercial vessels either purposefully or collaterally. It could also start targeting vessels transiting to or from Ukraine in the Black Sea, impacting Ukrainian aid and exports. Similarly, Ukraine will likely continue in its campaign against Russian oil shipping, purposefully targeting vessels linked to Russia's shadow fleet, and conducting attacks on ports and oil terminals more regularly. As the security situation in the Black Sea deteriorates further, insurance costs for legitimate operators will likely increase in the immediate term. Shipping operators that have stopped transiting the Black Sea will likely continue to avoid the area, while those who are still operating may reconsider. Continued attacks may put strain on global shipping routes and disrupt supply chains, particularly for Black Sea littoral countries.
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