M23 Rebel Offensive in Goma Threatens Regional Security in DRC

While M23 claims to have captured Goma, the situation remains fluid and DRC Armed Forces (FARDC) and international forces reportedly remain in the area. Kinshasa is accusing the Rwanda Defence Force (RDF) of openly operating with M23 in Goma, calling the offensive an “act of war by Rwanda.” The DRC cut diplomatic ties with Kigali Jan. 25 and members of the UN and East African Community (EAC) are calling for peace. However, the M23 rebels are unlikely to suspend their offensive as they have rapidly captured surrounding towns, including Sake to the west, cutting off access to Goma. Some clashes between FARDC and Rwandan troops have been reported along the shared border and such engagements are likely to escalate if M23 continues to press its offensive. Open conflict between DRC and Rwanda could trigger other regional forces, including Uganda and Burundi, to directly intervene in or around Goma.

The humanitarian situation in Goma is also likely to deteriorate as civilians attempt to escape the fighting. Roads in and out of the city are reportedly blocked and Goma International Airport is closed. The border crossing between Goma and Gisenyi, Rwanda, is also closed, limiting evacuation options from the city. Goma is home to over 1 million people, as well as hundreds of thousands of internally displaced people (IDPs). Criminal gangs are reportedly taking advantage of the security vacuum; a mass escape occurred at the Munzenze prison on Jan. 27, and looting has been reported across the city. Civilians may be inadvertently caught up in the fighting, including in artillery fire, particularly if they attempt to flee.

Related violence is possible elsewhere in North Kivu and South Kivu. The M23 offensive and capture of territory is likely to exacerbate supply shortages and disruptions to utilities. Officials could impose restrictions in the coming days including but not limited to curfews, road closures, and border closures. Armed groups not involved directly in the current battles could also seek to escalate operations.

President Tshisekedi’s government is likely to come under increasing domestic political pressure due to the M23 advance. Protests are reportedly taking place in Kinshasa and other cities denouncing the offensive and the government’s inability to improve the security situation in the east. Anti-Rwandan sentiment is likely to increase, and Rwandan interests may be targeted in demonstrations. If Goma falls and M23 forces capture further territory, Tshisekedi could face attempts to remove him or his government from power. Internal forces, including the UN and Southern African Development Community (SADC) Mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo (SAMIDRC), may deploy additional troops if the fighting continues to escalate.

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