Middle East Conflict Likely to Escalate Threat from Global Terrorism

• The threat of terror attacks linked to the US–Israel conflict with Iran will almost certainly increase globally in the near term. 

• Attacks are likely to occur through a mix of centrally directed operations and decentralized acts by sympathetic individuals or groups. 

• Soft targets and symbolic sites linked to the US and Israel are the most likely targets. 
   

Iran maintains direct relationships with and provides support to a wide network of militant organizations across the Middle East. These include Lebanese Hizballah, multiple Shi'a militia groups in Iraq, and the Al-Houthi movement in Yemen. Iran has also historically maintained pragmatic relationships with Sunni militant organizations when their interests converge. Tehran has supported groups such as Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad and has, at times, maintained contacts with elements of al-Qaeda.

According to a recent UN report, al-Qaeda’s global network is some 50 times larger than it was at the time of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, raising concerns that multiple militant actors may attempt to capitalize on the current geopolitical crisis. As the conflict continues, the Islamic State (IS), which has no operational ties with Iran and is in fact an enemy of Shi'a organizations, may also attempt to exploit the situation. The broader security environment created by the conflict will therefore likely spawn a convergence of threats from both Iran-aligned networks and unrelated extremist organizations seeking to exploit the chaos.

Several incidents and arrests since the start of the conflict highlight the evolving threat landscape. In the US, an individual reportedly wearing a shirt displaying the Iranian flag opened fire in Austin, Texas on March 2, killing two people and wounding over a dozen others. While the investigation is ongoing, the incident highlights the possibility of ideologically motivated attacks by individuals inspired by the conflict.

In the Gulf region, Qatari authorities dismantled two IRGC-linked cells and arrested 10 suspects. Seven were reportedly involved in espionage activities targeting military installations and vital infrastructure, while three others had received drone training intended for sabotage operations. Similarly, Bahraini authorities arrested several individuals suspected of attempting to foment unrest and film sensitive locations and sites damaged during Iranian projectile attacks. One of the most significant disruptions occurred in Azerbaijan, where security services foiled an IRGC-managed network allegedly planning attacks against a prominent Jewish leader, a synagogue, the Israeli Embassy in Baku, and the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline.

Several domestic intelligence and law enforcement agencies in the US have raised their alert posture. The killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, has further heightened these concerns among intelligence and counterterrorism agencies. The attempted storming of the US Consulate in Karachi on March 1 illustrates the potential for protests or violence targeting US and other Western-aligned facilities following Khamenei’s death.

Europe is also experiencing elevated threat levels. On March 8, an explosive device was thrown into the entrance area of the US Embassy in Oslo. While the incident remains under investigation, authorities believe it may be linked to the broader escalation in the Middle East. The incident prompted US authorities to issue a security alert for Sweden, advising US citizens to avoid large crowds due to the elevated terrorism risk targeting Americans. Similarly, US officials have warned of potential attacks against hotels in Iraqi Kurdistan by Iran-aligned Shi'a militias.

Several European governments have increased security measures in response to the heightened threat environment. France, Germany, and other countries have raised alert levels around diplomatic missions, Jewish institutions, and major public venues. Security risks across Europe include an elevated threat of terrorism and violent extremism, increased cyberattacks against infrastructure, conflict-related online fraud schemes, and disinformation campaigns.

Militant groups may conduct complex, coordinated attacks, or their activities may manifest through individuals operating in isolation. Lone-actor attacks remain the most likely form of terrorism in many Western countries because they require minimal planning, training, or logistical support. These typically include stabbings, small-arms shootings, vehicle-ramming incidents, or other rudimentary methods such as improvised weapons.

More sophisticated cell-based operations are less common but potentially far more lethal. These attacks typically involve multiple attackers, coordinated timing, and layered tactics, such as using improvised explosive devices (IEDs) to create diversions followed by small-arms assaults on crowded areas. Such operations require planning, surveillance, and logistical preparation, making them more likely to be associated with organized networks or individuals receiving external direction or training. While centrally directed or network-enabled plots tend to have the greatest capacity to produce large-scale casualties, self-radicalized lone actors can still be highly lethal. 

Iran-aligned networks and other terror actors historically favor targets that provide symbolic impact while requiring limited operational complexity. These include:

• Diplomatic and Government Targets: Foreign embassies and consulates; Israeli embassies and diplomatic missions; US and other Western diplomatic facilities; government buildings linked to the US or Israel; Jewish community center; security force personnel
• Energy and Strategic Infrastructure: Oil pipelines and refineries; energy export terminals; power distribution networks; ground transport infrastructure; maritime shipping infrastructure; aviation hubs and airports
• Soft Targets: Hotels frequented by Western travelers; tourist areas and shopping centers; restaurants and cafes; public transportation hubs; concert venues and sports stadiums; universities and public gatherings; religious sites and community centers

The evolving threat environment will likely force governments across North America, Europe, and the Middle East to increase security around diplomatic missions, Jewish institutions, and major public venues. Iran likely prefers deniable operations carried out through proxy networks, criminal organizations, or covert cells in order to impose costs on the US and Israel without triggering direct military retaliation.

At the same time, other extremist organizations, particularly IS or al-Qaeda affiliates, will almost certainly attempt to exploit the geopolitical crisis to conduct attacks of their own. As a result, the global terrorism threat environment will likely remain elevated for the duration of the conflict and potentially for months afterward, particularly if senior Iranian leadership continues to be targeted or if the conflict expands geographically.

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