What you Need to Know: The Escalating Armed Conflict Between Israel & Iran

The tension between Iran and Israel has reached a critical stage following Israel's military campaign launched in the early hours of June 13. This operation targeted key components of Iran’s nuclear program and military installations. Israel described the strikes as necessary to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, citing intelligence reports.

Retaliation from Iran was expected. They swiftly responded to the initial wave of airstrikes by launching over 100 drones toward Israel, all of which were intercepted by Israel's integrated air defense systems. Additional waves of drone and missile attacks resulted in casualties and damage across several areas in Israel.

Tensions between the two nations have been escalating over the last few months. Five critical factors needed to align for Israel to move forward with its attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities:

1. OPEC+ group's decision to raise oil output in April mitigated the risk of a geopolitical surge in oil prices
2. Iran's substantial increase in the production of 60 percent-enriched uranium since November 2024 heightened concerns about an imminent nuclear threat
3. Failing negotiations around a new nuclear deal with the US administration
4. Israel’s ability to weaken Iran’s regional proxies thanks to their recent military actions
5. Israel's October 2024 strikes on Iranian air defenses that significantly impaired Iran's ability to detect and repel attacks.

The armed conflict between Iran and Israel continues to escalate, with further strikes and counterstrikes almost certain, as well as casualties on both sides. Adding to the complexity of the situation, Iranian-aligned militia groups may participate in retaliatory actions, especially against US and allied assets in the region, particularly Iraq, amplifying regional instability. 

Air Travel Disruptions

The escalating conflict has led to widespread airspace closures, grounding flights across the region, including Iran, Israel, Iraq, Syria, and Jordan. Israel’s Tel Aviv Ben Gurion Airport (TLV) remains closed, while Israeli airlines have evacuated aircraft from the country. Major airlines such as Lufthansa, Emirates, Air France, and Qatar Airways have suspended operations to affected regions. Flight traffic is being rerouted either south through Egypt and Saudi Arabia or north via Turkey and Turkmenistan. Travelers across the Middle East face significant delays and heightened security protocols.

Maritime Risks 

The region’s seas are under increasing threat. Vessels with links to Israel or the US may be targeted in the Gulf of Oman, Strait of Hormuz, Persian (Arabian) Gulf, or northern Arabian Sea. As such, given the critical role of the Strait of Hormuz in international energy exports, disruptions in global oil and gas markets are likely if shipping lanes are blocked. Communication jamming and spoofing, whereby unknown entities falsely claim to be US or other international warships, have also previously been used in times of increased tensions. 

Heightened Security for Israeli Citizens and Jewish Communities

Israel has declared a nationwide state of emergency (SoE). The government has mobilized reserve units, activated emergency underground hospitals, and implemented sweeping civil defense measures. Schools remain closed and public gatherings are banned. 

Globally, the threat of terror attacks targeting Israeli citizens and Jewish communities remains significantly elevated. These threats are likely to prompt heightened security at synagogues, Jewish schools, Israeli diplomatic missions, and cultural centers. Israel announced the temporary closure of its diplomatic missions around the world until further notice. 

Individuals traveling and organizations operating in the region must prioritize safety and preparedness. 

Key recommendations for individuals include:

• Israel: Shelter in place. When air or land movement options open, strongly consider departing whilst you have a window of opportunity to do so.
• Israel, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, KSA (within 80 km of the border with Yemen) and Yemen: Defer all travel until further notice. In country, be prepared to shelter in place and/or identify your nearest shelter.
• Turkey, Jordan, Gulf Region: Travel can continue, but maintain flexible itineraries and closely monitor the situation.  

Key recommendations for organizations include: 

• Account for all personnel and be ready to evacuate stranded travelers when possible.
• Activate proportional BCPs at all at-risk sites; enable remote work and prepare for potential facility lockdowns.

If your organization has people or assets in the Middle East, our experts can help to stay ahead of the situation and protect your employees and operations.