Iran’s Nuclear Defiance ahead of October Snapback Threatens Global Sanctions

Iranian leadership is seemingly aware of the strategic implications. In response to the E3's informal August deadline, officials have threatened to enrich uranium to 90 percent, a weapons-grade threshold, or withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Any activation of snapback would likely formalize the collapse of the JCPOA, undermine prospects for continued European diplomatic engagement, and further consolidate power among Iran's hardline factions.

Russia and China, both permanent Security Council members and key Iranian economic partners, have publicly opposed the snapback mechanism, arguing that the US forfeited its standing following its unilateral withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018. While those arguments carry legal weight, Iran's growing nuclear transgressions and its provision of drones and missiles to Russia for use in Ukraine are testing European patience. For the E3, snapback is increasingly viewed as a last-resort measure to curb Iran's nuclear trajectory before the current diplomatic window closes. 

While snapback may overlap with existing US sanctions, it would reaffirm the international legitimacy of coordinated multilateral pressure on Iran, particularly for risk-sensitive governments and financial institutions in Europe, Asia, and beyond. Iran's economy, already under severe strain, remains vulnerable. Inflation is above 40 percent, the currency continues to weaken, and oil exports, its principal revenue stream, have struggled to return to pre-2018 levels despite a recent recovery.

Reinstated UN sanctions would include renewed restrictions on arms transfers, shipping, finance, and international transactions. Although China may continue importing discounted Iranian oil, other states are likely to reduce or suspend trade due to legal and reputational risks.

Economic pressure could extend beyond trade. Capital flight, reduced investor confidence, and a potential devaluation of the rial by between 20 and 30 percent could follow. Iran's ability to finance essential imports, including food and medicine, could weaken.

These economic shocks could translate into political pressure. Iran's 2022-2023 protest movements, driven by a combination of economic hardship and political repression, showed the government's vulnerability to public unrest. A renewed wave of economic disruption could spark similar mobilization. However, the government is likely to lean on its “resistance economy” strategy, relying on barter deals, black-market networks, and Chinese and Russian backchannels, to mitigate the impact. Snapback's effectiveness will, therefore, depend largely on the degree of global enforcement. 

Iran's threat to enrich uranium to 90 percent or exit the NPT would cross clear red lines for Israel and the US. For Israel, this constitutes an existential threat. The Israeli Air Force's June airstrikes on nuclear facilities demonstrated its readiness to act unilaterally. Any further enrichment could prompt another round of Israeli strikes.

Israel's June military operation also established air superiority over portions of Iranian airspace, demonstrating Tel Aviv's capacity to target key nuclear and military sites. However, retaliation from Iran would likely extend beyond missile strikes, potentially involving drone attacks via regional proxies and cyber operations. The risk of escalation into a broader regional conflict would be high.

The calculus for the US is more complex under a second Trump administration pursuing a revitalized "maximum pressure" strategy. While Washington supported Israel's June strikes, it has refrained from deeper military engagement. However, should Iran cross the 90 percent enrichment threshold or withdraw from the NPT, strategic and political pressure on the US to act will likely intensify.  

The impending expiration of Resolution 2231 and the possible activation of snapback sanctions represent a defining moment for nuclear diplomacy. Snapback could reconstitute global pressure on Iran, but it also risks accelerating Tehran's hardline posture and precipitating military confrontation. If implemented, snapback must be paired with a credible diplomatic offramp, such as a phased sanctions relief framework tied to verifiable rollback of Iran's nuclear activities. Decisions taken in the coming weeks and months will determine whether the international community can reestablish a path toward arms control and regional stability or face a new era of confrontation in the Middle East.

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