Tropical Cyclones Likely to Impact Australia During the 2025 Season

Since 1980, around 10-11 tropical cyclones have formed each season, with 3–4 making landfall. Since 2000, the number of cyclones per season has decreased to 8-9. About half of all storms occur in the western region, and roughly half of all tropical cyclones reach severe intensity. 

Tropical cyclones in the Australian region are influenced by several factors, particularly variations in the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In general, more cyclones make landfall during La Nina years and fewer during El Nino years. The US Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has declared La Nina officially underway, likely to persist through December 2025-February 2026. However, Australia's Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has yet to declare La Nina due to stricter criteria. Across Australia, the overall frequency of tropical cyclones is likely to decrease, but the proportion of high-intensity storms (categories 4 and 5) may increase. 

Storm systems can have major impacts, posing a threat to life and causing hundreds of billions of dollars in damage yearly. The primary hazard is flooding caused by storm surge and heavy rainfall. Strong winds can also damage property, whip up dangerous flying debris, and create rough seas that threaten mariners and coastal communities. Infrastructure damage can be extensive, leading to widespread power outages, contaminated water supplies, major transport disruptions, and interruptions to internet services and mobile communications. Health and emergency services may become overstretched due to the surge in demand, while transport closures and supply chain disruptions can limit access to essential goods and services in the immediate aftermath of a storm.

While sustained wind speed provides a measure of potential wind damage, it does not account for other environmental hazards such as storm surge, heavy rainfall, or tornadoes. A slow-moving storm, regardless of its intensity, can produce prolonged rainfall over a region, which may be more damaging than a stronger storm that moves quickly. The level of damage and disruption also depends on the vulnerability and preparedness of the affected area. For instance, remote communities with limited resources and slower access to assistance may experience severe impacts even from relatively minor storms. 

The road to recovery after a typhoon can be long and costly. Restoration may take months or even years. Damage to airports, ports, rail lines, roads, and other transport infrastructure can hinder the delivery of aid and essential goods. Storms can also have long-term secondary impacts, including declines in tourism, reduced agricultural productivity for future crops, and lasting mental and physical health effects on affected communities.

Learn more about leveraging our industry-leading regional and subject matter experts for intelligence that helps your organization stay ahead of risks to your people and operations.