Gulf States: Impact of the Iran-Israel Conflict on the Gulf Cooperation Council

Iran's retaliatory missile strikes targeted Al-Udeid Airbase in Qatar, home to the largest US military presence in the region. The attack, however, was widely viewed as symbolic and deliberately limited in scope to avoid casualties. US President Donald Trump publicly acknowledged Iran's restrained response and later claimed that Iran and Israel had agreed to a ceasefire. However, reports indicate that at least one ballistic missile was launched from Iran at Israel after the ceasefire was reportedly in effect. The missile was intercepted, leading to no damage or casualties. The coming days will be critical to ensure the ceasefire remains in effect and further violations are possible. 

The coming days will be critical to ensure the ceasefire remains in effect and further violations are possible. Even if the ceasefire holds, it will unlikely result in long-term peace. Iran and Israel will probably resume their decades-long shadow conflict, marked by cyberattacks, sabotage, proxy warfare, and targeted assassinations.  

The apparent willingness to de-escalate stems largely from the unsustainable military and economic toll on both sides. Iran has sustained major damage to military bases, nuclear facilities, and energy infrastructure. In turn, Israel has absorbed strikes on critical infrastructure. Both sides also face material constraints, and these pressures may be contributing to the current pause in hostilities. 

The scale of regional disruptions, from widespread airspace closures to mass evacuations, galvanized diplomatic efforts led by European states, GCC countries, and others to secure a ceasefire.  

As direct confrontation subsides, attention is shifting to Iran's regional proxies. The Al-Houthis in Yemen, despite a ceasefire agreement with the US, have renewed threats against American vessels in the Red Sea. Iraqi Shi'a militias have also resumed attacks on US bases in Iraq since the conflict began. 

While the GCC states have thus far weathered the conflict with limited direct fallout, they remain strategically vulnerable to regional instability. The Gulf states are, therefore, likely to prepare for a protracted period of latent risk marked by proxy attacks, cyber threats, and recurring disruptions to airspace and commerce. Long-term stability will depend not only on restraint from Israel and Iran but also on renewed diplomatic engagement, especially between the US and Iran, to address the deeper geopolitical fault lines. 

If your organization has people or assets in the Middle East, our experts can help to stay ahead of the situation and protect your employees and operations.