Lobito Corridor Project: Strategic Supply Chain to Remain Contested Security Environment

The Lobito Corridor is a multi-faceted transport, energy, and telecommunication infrastructure project focused on connecting the Atlantic port of Lobito in Angola to the mining regions of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Zambia. The project presents a key inflection point in the geopolitical contest between the US and China, specifically in relation to critical sub-Saharan African supply chains. While both powers have committed significant investment into key infrastructure, the minerals they seek to unlock will remain in a contested environment. The project’s success hinges on its ability to securely transit critical mineral flows for export, as well as a clear and uninterrupted supply of these resources from key mining sites, particularly in the DRC. By offering a secure Atlantic export route, the Corridor aligns security needs of the DRC capital of Kinshasa with US and EU strategic priorities to diversify critical mineral supply chains.

However, the M23 rebel group’s capture of Goma in January and its subsequent push into South Kivu Province have stretched President Felix Tshekedi’s political capital and national security resources. The recent US-backed peace agreement between the DRC and Rwanda establishes a Joint Security Coordination Mechanism to track armed groups and share intelligence, with oversight from the US and Qatar. It includes commitments to refugee return, humanitarian access, and cooperation with MONUSCO, alongside a Joint Oversight Committee to monitor implementation. Crucially, the deal outlines a Regional Economic Integration Framework within three months, aimed at formalizing mineral trade and attracting US and African investment to stabilize cross-border dynamics.

Crisis24's parent company, GardaWorld, has maintained operations in the region since 2010 through its GardaWorld Security division. They currently deliver services to clients across the Lobito supply chain and calibrate operational continuity and security against local atmospherics and multi-source intelligence along the length of the route. Crisis24 benefits from GardaWorld Security’s strong local presence, offering on-the-ground local capabilities and tactical intelligence. GardaWorld Security's in-country analysts currently assess several threats at the tactical, operational, and strategic levels. 

• Criminal economies and extortion: The Corridor intersects mineral-rich zones in Katanga, where criminal networks thrive on informal supply chains and illicit checkpoint economies. The formalization of trade routes via digital customs platforms and rail infrastructure threatens these entrenched income streams, making sabotage and collusion increasingly likely.
• Checkpoint extortion is institutionalized: According to field reports from GardaWorld and interviews with haulage operators in Lubumbashi, truckers are typically stopped 10-16 times between Kolwezi and Kasumbalesa, paying USD 300-1,200 in bribes per vehicle to military, customs, the Artisanal Miners of Katanga cooperative (EMAK), and police actors. Any disruption to the status quo through tighter inspection regimes or digital asset tracking, risks sparking violent retaliation or infiltration into Corridor operations.
• Smuggling routes and bypass networks: When enforcement tightens, operators frequently resort to well-established smuggling routes through Sakania, Dilolo, and informal tracks near Kasumbalesa. These alternative corridors provide flexibility but also create blind spots in enforcement and security coverage.
• UXO threat in Angola: A critical yet underreported threat stems from unexploded ordnance (UXO) contamination along the Angolan stretch of the Corridor. Over 1,100 known minefields remain from Angola's 1975-2002 civil war, and a comprehensive national clearance database remains an ongoing project. Operational impacts include delays to construction and rail rollout, alongside significant insurance and liability risks for contractors. 

• Trucking syndicate activism: Such syndicates dominate current mineral transport in the Copperbelt and have demonstrated disruptive capacity. Local unions and hauliers view the rail project as a threat to livelihoods. If Corridor developments are perceived to marginalize local actors, operators may face track obstruction, targeted vandalism, or coordinated protests.
• Criminal networks tied to smuggling, mineral theft, and illicit taxation: These networks remain deeply embedded along the Corridor. Despite US, EU, and UN-backed security reforms, corruption and collusion with local forces persist. The October-December 2024 spike in recorded incidents within 25 km (16 miles) of the Corridor coincided with President Tshisekedi's crackdown on illegal mining, suggesting enforcement actions can trigger violent backlash.
• The 2025 cobalt export ban and rising lithium demand: These have intensified smuggling incentives. According to a South Africa-based commodity trader, reliability, not cost, dictates routing decisions.
• Public health risks: A 2025 WHO survey of five Angolan provinces along the Corridor flagged chronic infrastructure deficits, including <1 hospital bed per 10,000 residents and <30 percent primary care coverage. Population surges linked to Corridor works are already straining services. Without mitigation, there is a risk of disease outbreaks, gender-based violence, and migrant-driven urban stress.
• Conflict risk: Historical parallels with Mozambique's Cabo Delgado insurgency underline the danger – where rapid investment meets weak governance and local resentment, conflict risk escalates. Operational continuity on the Lobito Corridor will require real-time intelligence, social risk mapping, and robust local engagement to avoid replicating these dynamics. 

• Politicized infrastructure and geopolitical alignment: The Trump administration's growing engagement is not yet reflected in any formal security commitment. A notable intervention is Erik Prince's reported deal to secure mining assets, as well as reports of Colombian mercenaries deployed in the DRC, and growing US interest in critical minerals. Although an indication of the mechanics of potential minerals-for-security strategy, the absence of clear commitments combined with persistent local skepticism may undermine long-term success.  
• A fragile peace agreement: Despite the June 2025 DRC-Rwanda peace agreement, the absence of clear security guarantees and lack of M23 engagement limits its credibility. A July 2 UN report confirmed Rwanda's ongoing command over M23 operations, reinforcing fears that the group may retain control of key routes in North Kivu. Although currently confined to Eastern DRC, a breakdown in the April ceasefire could push the conflict south, increasing sanctions complications and triggering border closures, mining disruptions, and domestic unrest with spillover risks for supply chains.  
• Regional political risk and election disruption: Upcoming elections in Zambia (2026) and Angola (2027) pose latent threats of unrest, border disruptions, or sudden policy shifts. Politicization of the Corridor could be weaponized by opposition parties, especially if negative public sentiment grows around job creation or foreign dominance. New administrations may renegotiate terms, raising operating costs or delaying progress.
• Systemic risk, governance, and economic headwinds: Persistent decentralized governance, currency volatility, and competing mining reforms strain the required trilateral cooperation between Angola, Zambia, and the DRC. Although officials stress “Lobito is happening,” successful implementation requires sustained alignment and coordination amid domestic fiscal pressure and an increasingly disrupted global trade environment. 

The Lobito Corridor is entering a critical phase. Operational and commercial disruptions confirm that the operating environment across the DRC, particularly in Lualaba and Haut-Katanga, is becoming increasingly unstable. As foreign investment and personnel continue to expand over the next 24 months, the Corridor will present a growing target for opportunistic crime, asset interference, and politically motivated disruption.

Community grievances driven by perceptions of exclusion from the Corridor’s benefits pose a rising threat. Assertive local actors, including trucker syndicates and mining cooperatives, have the capacity to block key logistic points, delay shipments, or incite broader anti-foreign sentiment if they feel marginalized. Without effective local engagement and benefit-sharing frameworks, these pressures may translate into direct operational disruption.

The Corridor's success will hinge not only on infrastructure delivery but also on political alignment, stable governance, and coordinated regional security. African governments and international stakeholders must move beyond bilateral agreements toward a joint security and regulatory framework that matches the Corridor's ambition. Otherwise, the risk of prolonged disruption driven by both local grievances and geopolitical friction will remain acute.