Red Sea Attacks Underscore Persistent Al-Houthi Threat

The first attack occurred on July 6, targeting the Liberian-flagged bulk carrier Magic Seas southwest of Al-Hudaydah, Yemen. The Al-Houthis surrounded the vessel and targeted it with gunfire and rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs). Later, the group launched unmanned surface vessels (USVs) at the bulk carrier, two of which struck the vessel. The crew abandoned ship and were rescued by a passing vessel. Magic Seas was subsequently sunk using planted explosives as displayed in a showy propaganda video released by the group.

On July 7, the Al-Houthis launched an almost identical attack on another Liberian-flagged vessel, Eternity C, west of Al-Hudaydah. The ship was confirmed to have sunk by July 9. At least four crew members were killed in the assault and 21 others survived, 11 of whom are now being held by the Al-Houthis.

As with other Al-Houthi attacks on vessels, the group claimed that the vessels had links with Israel. Since October 2023, the group has engaged in a campaign against Israeli-linked shipping in the Red Sea, stating that this is in solidarity with Palestinians amid the war in Gaza. Attacks have also targeted US- and UK-linked shipping vessels, as well as vessels purportedly linked to any countries or companies that the Al-Houthis perceive are supporting Israel. The Al-Houthis and the US reached a ceasefire agreement on May 6, with the group agreeing to halt attacks on US vessels.

The recent attacks broke months of relative calm in the Red Sea and are likely linked to the 12-day conflict between Israel and Iran. While the Al-Houthis were not directly involved in the conflict, they issued several threats to resume attacks throughout it. The Al-Houthis likely conducted the strikes to demonstrate their continued strength despite Iranian setbacks in the region. The attacks were also likely meant as a warning to shipping companies considering a return to the Red Sea.

The early July attacks reflect a clear evolution in Al-Houthi tactics. While previous incidents often relied on stand-off weapons like missiles or unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), these attacks used a coordinated, multipronged approach. Both involved large numbers of skiffs and the use of small arms and RPGs, as well as USVs. The use of USVs and, in the case of Magic Seas, the subsequent boarding and planting of explosives indicate an intent to cause severe damage or total loss.

The drawing down of naval missions following the US-Al-Houthi ceasefire and a period of relative calm contributed to these attacks' success. The group appeared emboldened by the lack of immediate threat during the attacks, using the opportunity to both refine its tactics and grandstand, thereby reasserting its relevance in the maritime threat landscape.

Since the early July assaults, there have been no reported Al-Houthi attacks against shipping, though the group announced on July 27 that it would attack any ships, regardless of nationality, belonging to companies that do business with Israeli ports. While the US condemned the recent attacks, it has not indicated that it considers the Al-Houthis to have violated the ceasefire. However, should a US vessel be targeted, it would probably prompt the US to resume strikes on Al-Houthi targets in Yemen, likely resulting in tit-for-tat exchanges between the group and the US.

Although the Al-Houthis may aim to resume their full-scale campaign against shipping, shipping traffic, and therefore the number of potential targets for Al-Houthi attacks, has precipitously dropped in the Red Sea since 2023. As a result, the Al-Houthis may deem it more efficient to carry out occasional but intense attacks similar to the most recent strikes rather than seeking to target a large number of vessels.

The early July attacks are unlikely to considerably alter current shipping patterns as most major shipping lines continue to entirely avoid the Red Sea. The diversion of vessels around the Cape of Good Hope remains the industry norm and is likely to persist for the foreseeable future.

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